Showing posts with label 'web 3.0'. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 'web 3.0'. Show all posts

October 15, 2007

A Modest Proposal: Seth Godin Should Be...

Tis a melancholy experience for anyone who browses through this great medium, to see so much content of low and dubious quality, so much wasted time and energy, so much gaming and spamming and jockeying for attention.

A once powerful conduit of ideas and insight, a meeting place of the world's sharpest minds tackling the world’s greatest challenges, where the towering brands of the yesteryear – the Amazons, Yahoos, and Googles – formerly upheld the classical values of beauty, goodness, and truth, but now find themselves overrun and overburdened by their multitudinous offspring.

It’s a joke... It only takes minutes to start a blog and multiply the web’s cluttered and disorganized surplus of information, dumping out post after post of unnecessary verbiage, overflowing the digital latrines of Silicon Valley, sloshing its way around the world through the grimy gutters of Technorati and Bloglines. Daily – twice, thrice, or even twenty times daily – these self-absorbed opinion mongers and dilettantes thrust ever increasing doses of amateur pseudoknowledge into the publick domain.

And why do they do it? What are their motives? Is it some kind of conspiracy? I suppose these vermin-like strivers believe that some of their ideas and opinions might actually be interesting or useful to the rest of us. I suppose they all see themselves as some kind of exception: "... but my ideas are actually pretty good; if only they could be heard." Most of them probably begin with innocent enough intentions – curiosity perhaps – without considering what kind of slope they’re heading down.

I had to know why. My inquisitive and adventurous impulses soon overcame my more conventional habituations. So I decided to try it. Besides, some of my own ideas and opinions are actually pretty good, and may be quite interesting and useful to others; I just hadn’t had many opportunities to voice them. Now this is it. And the rest of the story – my foray into the Great Conversation – tells itself; it can be read between the lines of my past, present, and future posts.

That seems like a fine way to end, but I feel like I still have a bit more to say on the issue, and since I’ve not much else to do at the moment, let me tell you some more about my personal thoughts and experiences.

Honestly, I haven’t had very much success with the whole blog thing. One might account for this dismal result by my ambivalent attitude: remember my antipathy towards all of the gaming and selling and linkmanship that goes occurs over the web?

Nevertheless, a little feedback wouldn’t hurt. When I googled "blog advice" I discovered what a great plethora of information there is on the subject. That ultimately led me to this post by Seth Godin, who is probably the most overrated blogger on the web, and maybe the most overrated person in the entire world. But he knows a lot about marketing – he’s probably the most insightful and entertaining expert on the subject – especially on how to market a successful blog, so I read the post carefully and took notes.

Many of Godin’s points are very good – "write about blogging," "learn enough to become the expert in your field," "be patient," and "answer your email" – but then there are quite a few obvious contradictions. First he says to write short posts, then he says to write long ones; first he says to be timely and topical, then he says to be timeless; first he says you should appeal to a majority, then he says go for an "obsessed minority"; first he says to "write about a never-ending parade of topics," then he says to "write about only one thing, in ever-deepening detail, so you become definitive."

Godin obviously doesn’t know what he’s talking about. He is the kind of person who makes things even more confusing for the rest of us. Experts should be "one-handed," as a past U.S. president said about his economic advisors: don’t give us answers that say something "on one hand," but "then on the other..." People must never have to do their own thinking. Give us straight answers, with no ambiguity or contradiction, in perfect black and white technicolour.

And the stupidest thing that Godin recommends is to "write nearly libellous things about fellow bloggers, daring them to respond (with links back to you) on their blog." I would never even consider doing such a thing. It's beyond imaginable; it's totally counterintuitive. It makes me wonder about the man’s character; it makes me wonder whether perhaps the world’s most deservedly renowned marketing guru, Seth Godin, is on drugs. I’m just putting that out there.

Something else to consider is a link that Godin provides in his introduction, to some old pamphlet written by a guy named Jonathan Swift back in 1729. It’s called A Modest Proposal, and (I don’t want to go into the details, but) it recommends dealing with the problems of Irish poverty and hunger – not to mention the "melancholy" sight of it all – by more or less boiling and eating the poorest children in the country. I think that would have been a terrible idea. Shame on Jonathan Swift, and shame on Seth Godin for putting a link to it on his blog, which is highly informative and entertaining. Visit sethgodin.typepad.com.

What was he trying to tell us? And more importantly, how could anyone let such unconventional ideas be published in the first place, and then why are they still around, hundreds of years later?

My own personal opinion – and this takes us back to the problem with which I began – is that the World Wide Web is an opportunity to finally suppress all of these different ideas and opinions. It might seem quite the opposite; it might seem that the web empowers everybody to appreciate life from their own personal perspective, so that eventually each person might develop their own philosophy and worldview, creating a lifestory that interacts and mingles 'harmoniously' with the views and stories of everyone else, seeking new challenges, being adventurous, testing conventions and assumptions, and continually looking for ways to learn and grow more effectively.

But I don’t believe this will necessarily happen on its own; only human meddling and striving could give the movement enough force to overcome the opposite tendency – our "conventional habituations," the impulse to conform.

The many connections, opportunities, and challenges provided by the web don’t just have the potential to make us more self-reliant and personally responsible; they also carry the potential to make us more uniform. If we keep going this way, then the challenges I outlined at the top – the irrepressible and uncontrollable flood of information and ideas coming through the web – will be stopped dead.

But this too is something that won’t necessarily happen on its own; this too can only happen through human meddling and striving – to overcome our "inquisitive and adventurous impulses."

If this is something we really want to accomplish, I think we need to recognize that it will be a very long term project, perhaps exceeding our own lifetimes. But look at the great result: the children of the future will live obediently in a world of strict authoritarian control, with no margin for such frivolous things as "creative freedom."

Let us also admit that this will be far too broad a task to be done with any kind of overt or head-on force. Large-scale communism and other authoritarian experiments of the twentieth century have demonstrated this much; we should learn from their mistakes. People won’t conform if they know they are powerless, but if we can somehow trick everybody into mistakenly believing that they have creative freedom...

Here is my modest proposal. We should begin by designing systems that will efficiently determine what are already the most popular ideas, activities, interests, etc. Let’s call this Phase 1.0. The point here is that we’ll have a much better chance of tricking people into conformity if we find out what most of them already like. In this early phase, we also want to begin conditioning people to incorporate these systems into their everyday lives.

When the ‘measurement’ systems of Phase 1.0 have been refined, then we can begin designing the ‘management’ systems of Phase 2.0. The aim of this phase is to direct people’s activities and condition their habits and tastes. This means rewarding people who enjoy and engage in things that are already the most popular, and doing it in a way that makes them feel empowered.

I think the most effective way to do this is to encourage more and more people to become content producers and providers – without necessarily having any knowledge or skills, nor much interest in improving the knowledge and skills they already have. The kind of people we want to make productive should not have any aspirations as to personal growth, or improving the originality or difficulty of their work; they should be mainly concerned with popularity and some of the more trivial rewards which that entails.

There will always be a few aspiring radicals – creative, inquiring, and adventurous types – who will try to question assumptions and challenge conventions, but I think the overwhelmingness of a highly motivated and organized majority might eventually push such people too far out into the periphery to be of much concern.

I’m not really sure what will happen next, but I think with enough momentum, the accomplishments of Phases 1.0 and 2.0 might be enough to carry us towards a perfect authoritarian uniformity, where people can finally live in a world of ordered and ideal ignorance, where children will be freed from the burdens of creative freedom, and even adults will never be compelled to develop their own competence and knowledge.

There is only one thing that might prevent that from happening: people might somehow learn how to use the systems from Phases 1.0 and 2.0, to take advantage of them as creative resources, not for the sake of popularity and immediate reward, but rather to learn even more, even better. If people learn to think and create for themselves, sharing real understanding and actual control, then our deterministic destiny might be foiled.

Fortunately, that’s an even more challenging task, requiring long-term investment, with continual risk-taking and evaluation. It also faces a basic paradox: how can individuals unify their efforts against uniformity?

These are just a few modest suggestions that I'm putting out for discussion. I profess, in the sincerity of my heart, that I have not the least personal interest in endeavouring to promote this necessary work.

The End.

October 1, 2007

Education and Creation for 'Web 3.0'

Back before the bubble-bust of 2000, there was a guy at my university -- let's call him Gordie -- who tried convincing a couple of my business student friends that the future of the web would be less about e-commerce and more about entertainment.

Our business friends didn't buy the argument. They insisted rather that the increasing productivity and diminishing costs provided by e-commerce would something something something something... I don't know, I'm not an economist, and I wasn't in class when their professor taught them to say that.

Gordie didn't really disagree with what the business students said; what he was trying to tell them was that the real importance of e-commerce was behind the scenes (automating processes, managing information and transactions, etc), and the efficiencies created by e-commerce would make it possible for new, previously unimagined activities to emerge and flourish.

Gordie saw that the web possessed a new kind of character -- new strengths, new opportunities -- that would make it possible (or inevitable) to invent and engage in radically new ways of working and living. Combined with the fact that it was becoming much easier and more affordable to do things like make your own music and movies at home, well, who was really to say what kinds of web-driven entertainment people might be enjoying in, say, 2007.

But the business students still didn't get it. In fact, they seemed to think that Gordie was being a bit ridiculous: "You don't understand how it works. Higher productivity and a declining cost of doing business leads to lower prices which leads to higher sales which generates more revenue and a higher stock value which means to more capital to invest in productivity and efficiency which leads to..."

By then everyone was just getting frustrated. It was apparent that they weren't having a real discussion. Gordie didn't possess the sophisticated technical grasp of second-year economics necessary to signal to his business friends that he understood and agreed with them; and his business friends didn't have the creatively pessimistic, 'open conceptual' attitude necessary to see Gordie's dream-like vision -- perhaps their professors hadn't taught them how to "think outside the box" yet.

It wouldn't have made a difference anyways. In a few months the stock market crashed and reassured Gordie that his insights were pretty good (unlike his mutual funds) --
maybe he was better as a philosopher than as a business man.

But that's all in the past now. A new wave of entrepreneurs and investors understands that doing business on the web is about providing new forms of value that wouldn't be possible offline, using information and interactivity to provide a richer user experience.

(I know everybody knows all this, but bear with me; I'm building up to something else.)

The great value of the web is not just that it helps us organize information, activities, and content, but that it organizes those things in a way that becomes a whole new form of entertainment, an end-in-itself -- as in, "the medium is the message."

But now some people talk as if there may now be a 'Bubble 2.0.' I've had some concerns about this myself, but I don't think that these 'bubbles' are merely stock market phenomena: the Web 2.0 bubble has more to do with ambiguous commodities like knowledge and attention. The overvaluations this time are not being made by businesspeople and investors, but consumers and users.

I think that we can observe users making the same general mistake that businesspeople made before 2000: they are going online simply because it's something new, and because they can; and because so many of their peers are going online (in 2000 it was e-commerce, in 2007 it's social networking), people feel compelled to be online -- though they may not understand why.

Of course, skeptics might be surprised to find that once they get over their initial hesitation, most people really do enjoy online social networking, and there really is something to gain (not to mention the opportunity cost they would have had to pay by putting it off); and before they realize it, they're reconnecting with old forgotten friends, meeting new people, and sharing information they would have otherwise not known.

But here's where I'm going to make the same controversial argument that Gordie made in 2000:

The real value of social networking software is that it automates and organizes many of the 'behind the scenes' elements of life. People who use this as a starting place from which to seek and develop new kinds of activity will thrive; users who think it's merely enough to do online what may just as easily be done offline (chatting and gossiping about news and events, sending pictures...) will go bankrupt. Bankrupt?!

I don't mean financially bankrupt; I mean bankrupt in terms of those more ambiguous commodities, like attention and expertise -- social capital and knowledge capital.

That probably seems counterintuitive: "aren't sites like Facebook, MySpace, and LinkedIn all about increasing social capital?" Yes but, like the capital in stock markets, it has a kind of virtual value: you can't just go out and spend it, and it depends on the value other people believe it may have -- based on its potential to grow and give more value in return -- which makes it subject to market forces beyond anyone's control.

To illustrate, say that MySpace's Tom Anderson is worth a million dollars in stock (I'm sure it's quite a bit more than that). If investors lose faith in the potential for his company to grow and add value to their portfolio, if they sell and invest their money elsewhere, then the real value of all of his stock might drop dramatically -- as we saw happen to a few web gazillionaires back in 2000.

Now I see that (as of the time of writing) Tom also has 203,647,567 friends on MySpace: that's a lot of 'social capital' -- on paper. But if users begin to invest their time and attention elsewhere, if they lose faith in MySpace's (or Facebook's, or LinkedIn's, or Twitter's...) ability to add real value to their social lives (they don't have to do it skeptically or intelligently either, something better might just come along), then all of that social capital could be destroyed very quickly, leaving Tom with hundreds of thousands of worthless 'friends,' or rather, a bunch of unupdaded profiles containing out-of-date information -- which, in the information age, could be worse than worthless.

The continued success of these social networking sites depends on a continuing (and preferably, an increasing) stream of attention, which means providing a continuous stream of new experiences, interactions, and information for users. There are roughly two ways for social networking sites to get this: from users themselves, and by providing new ways of interacting and using information.


For this to continue generating growth, I think both users and providers will have to become more knowledgeable and sophisticated. We need to learn to approach our online activities as investments -- towards more effective, creative, generative kinds of activity -- or else the time and attention we spend online (both as users and providers) will simply be lost in the past, with nothing concretely gained to show for it.

The mistake back in 2000 was to conceive the web in limited terms of commerce by consumers. By now we've learned to think in terms of experience by users. But now that isn't enough either. To continue growing we need to conceive the web in terms of education by creators.

It's difficult to say what this will really look like seven years from now. We can hardly begin to imagine what tools and capacities will become available. Almost any guess is pretty good at this point. The only mistake would be to believe we really know.

Like Gordie's business friends from seven years ago, what we know about the web now is what prevents us from seeing the web of the future.